LAHORE - A US-based geopolitical security and intelligence service has forecasted that the lawyer’s ‘Long March’, which is being stage to establish the rule of law, would end up being an unruly affair due to clashes between the PPP and the PML-N.
The Stratfor analysis predicts that the Pakistani military is faced with an uphill task of stabilizing the situation.
With US and UK support, Pakistan’s military is trying to broker a settlement and avoid a showdown between the PPP and PML-N.
“Neither Islamabad’s security establishment nor Washington wants to see the current imbroglio worsen. All eyes are on the growing insurgencies in Pakistan and Afghanistan as the US, NATO struggle to find ways to prevent the Talibanisation of Southwest Asia,” the Daily Times quotes the Stratfor analysis, as saying.
If efforts for reconciliation between the two sides fail, the Stratfor analysis foresees the “military stepping in and trying to reboot the system. If a new civil-military hybrid government forms in Pakistan, it would lead to further chaos”.
“First, PPP government will have to reverse its actions and acquiesce on the demands of the lawyers. A revitalised judiciary and provincial government will create an imbalance in the political system, leading to fresh political conflict,” says the report.
Furthermore, the Stratfor analysis notes that Pakistan is becoming increasingly polarized between idealists and realists. The idealists are pushing a hard-line nationalist agenda that includes a confrontational approach, while the realists believe the internal and external situations must be dealt with pragmatically.
“What this means is that forces challenging the writ of the state will be able to exploit the reluctance of the PML-N and its idealist allies to take a strong position against the insurgents.”